Прогноз развития банковского сектора России НОЯБРЬ 2010 ЕВГЕНИЙ ТАРЗИМАНОВ, ВИЦЕ-ПРЕЗИДЕНТ. - презентация

1 Прогноз развития банковского сектора России НОЯБРЬ 2010 ЕВГЕНИЙ ТАРЗИМАНОВ, ВИЦЕ-ПРЕЗИДЕНТ

2 2 На повестке дня 1.Обзор рейтингов 2.Операционная среда 3.Основные рейтинговые факторы 4.Последние изменения рейтингов 5.Заключение

3 3 1. Обзор рейтингов »РФ: >1,000 банков »Moody s рейтингует 107 банков (>80% активов системы) »Средний BFSR: E+ »Средний депозитный рейтинг: B2 BFSR DEPOSIT RATING

4 4 2. Операционная среда

5 5

6 6 3. Основные рейтинговые факторы »Господдержка снижается »Ликвидность – много свободных, неиспользуемых ресурсов »Качество активов – меньшее давление »Капитализация – несколько снизится »Доходность – на низком уровне

7 7 Господдержка 3. Основные рейтинговые факторы

8 8 Ликвидность

9 9 3. Основные рейтинговые факторы Качество кредитов

10 10 3. Основные рейтинговые факторы Качество кредитов

11 11 3. Основные рейтинговые факторы Качество кредитов – кредитование связанных сторон / капитал

12 12 3. Основные рейтинговые факторы Качество кредитов – Toп 20 кредитов / капитал

13 13 Source: Central Bank of Russia 3. Основные рейтинговые факторы Капитализация

14 14 3. Основные рейтинговые факторы Капитализация – сценарный анализ

15 15 3. Основные рейтинговые факторы Доходность

16 16 3. Основные рейтинговые факторы Доходность

17 17 4. Изменения рейтингов

18 18 »Рост экономики поддержит банковский сектор »Доля проблемных кредитов начнет плавно снижаться в 2011 году »Выход ЦБ из программ поддержки будет плавным »Капитализация останется на адекватном уровне 5. Заключение

19 19 Eugene Tarzimanov Q&A

20 20 © 2010 Moodys Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, MOODYS). All rights reserved. ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODYS PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. Under no circumstances shall MOODYS have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error (negligent or otherwise) or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of MOODYS or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis, interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits), even if MOODYS is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. The ratings, financial reporting analysis, projections, and other observations, if any, constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities. NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER. Each rating or other opinion must be weighed solely as one factor in any investment decision made by or on behalf of any user of the information contained herein, and each such user must accordingly make its own study and evaluation of each security and of each issuer and guarantor of, and each provider of credit support for, each security that it may consider purchasing, holding or selling. Moodys Investors Service, Inc. (MIS), a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Corporation (MCO), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MIS have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MIS for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,500 to approximately $2,500,000. MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISs ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at under the heading Shareholder Relations Corporate Governance Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy.