International Election Observation: a Sociologists View Dr. Olga Kamenchuk Director on International Relations Russian Center on Public Opinion Research. - презентация

1 International Election Observation: a Sociologists View Dr. Olga Kamenchuk Director on International Relations Russian Center on Public Opinion Research (VCIOM)

2 © ВЦИОМ, РФ Москва, ул. Казакова, 16, стр. 2. Тел./факс: (495) , (495) Август Voters and Observers: Two Paradoxes 1.Trust in the institute of international observers VERSUS distrust in the existing options 2.Evaluations of the outcomes of the elections VERSUS potential of elections fraud -Face-to-face interviews; Sample: 1600 respondents from 40 regions and republics of RF – representative by gender, age, education, occupation, income, political affiliation; Margin of error: +/- 3,4%

3 © ВЦИОМ, РФ Москва, ул. Казакова, 16, стр. 2. Тел./факс: (495) , (495) Август Trust in the Institute of International Observers

4 © ВЦИОМ, РФ Москва, ул. Казакова, 16, стр. 2. Тел./факс: (495) , (495) Август What do you think about international observers being present at the elections in Russia? (close-ended question, two replies maximum) - AGE

5 © ВЦИОМ, РФ Москва, ул. Казакова, 16, стр. 2. Тел./факс: (495) , (495) Август What do you think about international observers being present at the elections in Russia? (close-ended question, two replies maximum) - EDUCATION

6 © ВЦИОМ, РФ Москва, ул. Казакова, 16, стр. 2. Тел./факс: (495) , (495) Август Cross: International Observers VS Honesty of Elections

7 © ВЦИОМ, РФ Москва, ул. Казакова, 16, стр. 2. Тел./факс: (495) , (495) Август Distrust in the Existing Options

8 © ВЦИОМ, РФ Москва, ул. Казакова, 16, стр. 2. Тел./факс: (495) , (495) Август Suppose the results of the elections were contested. Whose evaluations will you trust most? (close-ended question, one reply possible) - AGE

9 © ВЦИОМ, РФ Москва, ул. Казакова, 16, стр. 2. Тел./факс: (495) , (495) Август Suppose the results of the elections were contested. Whose evaluations will you trust most? (close-ended question, one reply possible) – INTEREST IN POLITICS

10 © ВЦИОМ, РФ Москва, ул. Казакова, 16, стр. 2. Тел./факс: (495) , (495) Август Suppose the results of the elections were contested. Whose evaluations will you trust most? (close-ended question, one reply possible) – POLITICAL ASPIRATIONS Political forces supported

11 © ВЦИОМ, РФ Москва, ул. Казакова, 16, стр. 2. Тел./факс: (495) , (495) Август Suppose the results of the elections were contested. Whose evaluations will you trust most? (close-ended question, one reply possible) – HONESTY OF ELECTIONS Elections were honest?

12 © ВЦИОМ, РФ Москва, ул. Казакова, 16, стр. 2. Тел./факс: (495) , (495) Август Suppose the results of the elections were contested. Whose evaluations will you trust most? (close-ended question, one reply possible) - TENDENCY

13 © ВЦИОМ, РФ Москва, ул. Казакова, 16, стр. 2. Тел./факс: (495) , (495) Август Voters and Observers: Two Paradoxes 1.Trust in the institute of international observers VERSUS distrust in the existing options 2.Evaluations of the outcomes of the elections VERSUS potential of elections fraud Opinion Dynamics Oct , Telephone interviews. Sample: 1100 registered voters. Margin of error +/-3%. (Subsample of 936 – likely voters).

14 © ВЦИОМ, РФ Москва, ул. Казакова, 16, стр. 2. Тел./факс: (495) , (495) Август USA: How likely do you think is that there will be widespread voter fraud in the upcoming presidential elections? (close-ended question, one reply)

15 © ВЦИОМ, РФ Москва, ул. Казакова, 16, стр. 2. Тел./факс: (495) , (495) Август Problems: -Lack of trust towards existing institutions with the overall positive outlook towards the idea of international observations -Post-electoral evaluations do not coincide with the popular opinion -Current electoral research is done in various countries by various companies with varying methodology (and almost none on international observers) impossible for comparative analysis

16 © ВЦИОМ, РФ Москва, ул. Казакова, 16, стр. 2. Тел./факс: (495) , (495) Август Solutions: 1.WHO? Joint research group 2.WHAT? Evaluation of the existing systems -Knowledge -Effectiveness What should be changed? How to do this? 3.WHERE? OSCE member states 4.HOW? Structured face-to-face interviews Focus groups Expert surveys

17 © ВЦИОМ, РФ Москва, ул. Казакова, 16, стр. 2. Тел./факс: (495) , (495) Август Contact information: Dr. Olga Kamenchuk Director on International Relations Russian Center on Public Opinion Research (VCIOM) Kazakova Str., 16 Moscow, Russia Tel: (Ext 114)