Futurology (future studies):. 1. Overview Futures studies (also called futurology ) is the study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures. - презентация

1 Futurology (future studies):

2 1. Overview Futures studies (also called futurology ) is the study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie themfutures

3 Origins Ssu-Ma Chien (145-90BC) and his theory of the cycles of virtueSsu-Ma Chien Ibn Khaldun (1332–1406) - The Muqaddimah [13] modern sociology.Ibn Khaldun [13] Sir Thomas More - Utopia (1516)Sir Thomas MoreUtopia

4 4. Probability and predictability the tension between predictability and unpredictability is a source of controversy and conflict among futures studies scholars and practitioners. Some argue that the future is essentially unpredictable, and that "the best way to predict the future is to create it." Others believe, as Flechtheim, that advances in science, probability, modeling and statistics will allow us to continue to improve our understanding of probable futures, while this area presently remains less well developed than methods for exploring possible and preferable futures.predictabilityunpredictability

5 3. Methodologies In terms of methodology, futures practitioners employ a wide range of approaches, models and methods, in both theory and practice, many of which are derived from or informed by other academic or professional disciplines

6 5. Methodologies Futures techniques Shaping alternative futures Weak signals, the future sign and wild cards Near-term predictions Trend analysis and forecasting

7 6. Education University of Houston in USA helps:University of Houston conceptualize more just and sustainable human and planetary futures. develop knowledge and skills of methods and tools used to help people understand, map, and influence the future by exploring probable and preferred futures. understand the dynamics and influence that human, social and ecological systems have on alternative futures. conscientize responsibility and action on the part of students toward creating better futures.responsibility

8 Futurists Ray Kurzweil H. G. WellsH. G. Wells (World Brain)World Brain Jules VerneJules Verne ("From the Earth to the Moon")From the Earth to the Moon Stephen Hawking