Energy – Globe and Russia Prof. Leonid Grigoriev

2 GDP and Energy consumption, % change (y/y), Source: World Bank, BP GDPEnergy consumptionOil consumption World Advanced economies USA EU Japan Emerging markets Brazil Russia India China

33 World: Long-term Trends and Cycles Source: BP, IMF, IEF estimates Real oil price GDP (right scale)Primary energy consumption (right scale) $US 2007/ barrel y-o-y

Мировая инфляция и индексы цен на сырье, % - 2 Источник: IMF, Eurostat Бурные темпы экономического роста в 2000-е годы -> рост спроса на основные сырьевые товары -> потребительская инфляция Рост цен на сырье Ускорение инфляции

5 OPEC-11 Quota and Production, Source: US DOE, IEA

6 Advanced economies: GDP change, Q = 100, Source: World Bank, OECD, IEF estimates Advanced economies reached the bottom in 1H-2010 but recovery varies significantly between countries. US is the leader while Europe is stagnating

7 World Rig Count, Source: Hughes Baker Drilling activity in global oil&gas sector almost reached pre-crisis levels

8 Liquid Fuels Consumption, Source: US DOE

9 Capital flows to emerging markets, USD bln, Source: World Bank, OECD Bond issuance replaces traditional bank credit mainly due to refinancing options and general risk aversion

10 Costs per b/d of capacity, 1000 USD 2008, 2010 vs 2020 Source: OPEC Additional investment costs to increase production for 1 barrel per day are highest in Western Europe and equal USD

11 Oil price assumptions: WEO-2009 by scenarios Source: WEO 2009, IEA Oil prices are assume to grow steadily in real terms in Reference scenario. 450 scenario assumes lower energy prices (as it was in WEO-2008) due to falling demand.

12 Global energy mix by fuel type, f Source: WEO 2009, IEA Gas share is stable globally. IEA sees no more dash for gas Global gas demand in WEO-2008 is supposed to grow at 1.8% rate (primary energy – 1.6%) and in WEO-2009 its only 1.5% (primary energy – 1.5%)

Global energy consumption: 450 vs Reference 450 scenario means 230 GW of additional (compared to Reference) nuclear capacity by 2030! Source: WEO 2009, IEA

14 Global energy consumption: 450 vs Reference Gas consumption and its share in global energy mix falls in 450 scenario. 450 scenario means 230 GW of additional (compared to Reference) nuclear capacity by 2030! Source: WEO 2009, IEA