Россия и страны Центральной Азии: анализ приоритетных мер по адаптации к воздействиям изменения климата Кокорин Алексей Олегович WWF Russia По материалам IPCC 4AR, Государственных докладов для РКИК ООН и последних научных работ

WWF России гг. -эффективное выполнение Киотского протокола и заключение нового соглашения - снижение глобальных выбросов парниковых газов к 2050 г в 2 раза от уровня 1900 г гг. - подготовка и начало выполнения адаптационных мер и планов в России и странах Центральной Азии

Russia N. Hemisphere World

Russia: priorities for adaptation measures in near future Measures on infrastructure maintenance in permafrost melting areas monitoring, inspections, building standards, timely reconstruction etc. Special attention - oil pipelines, sanitary systems, indigenous people. Regional measures to reduce damage of floods : monitoring, inspections, construction standards, emergency plans and reserves, etc. Special attention - St. Petersburg (floods and rising of underground water). Medical, institutional and public awareness measures to prevent expansion of infections and diseases ; and to organize health care in heat waves. In South it is mainly diarrhoeal and tropical diseases, in North - tick-born encephalitis and some other infections. Biodiversity protection in Arctic with special attention to Polar Bear and marine mammals. Local livestock measures in steppe and tundra in case of heavy snowfalls and/or danger thaws/frost alterations.

Разрушение зданий и сооружений в зоне вечной мерзлоты Risk of permafrost melting and weakening for buildings and infrastructure 1 - small risk 2 - middle risk 3 - high risk Source: Anisimov and Reneva, 2006; calculations of the basis of climate scenario GFDL.

Arctic is melting and destroying

Dangerous weather events in Russia in 1991 – 2007 Increase in 2 times in 15 years in the past and in 10 years in the future (4 times in 25 years) Source: Roshydromet, Strategical forecast of climate change in the Russian Federation on the period by and its influence on Russian economy Data: VNIIGMI-MCD 70% Warm period (Apr. – Oct.) 30% Cold period (Nov. – March) в сумме

Общая проблема недостатка водных ресурсов в странах Центральной Азии и в южных регионах России Consolidated forecast of changes in river run-off by 2050 Changes in percent of annual river run-off by from the level of

Changes in productivity caused by climate conditions in Russia by 2020 (deviations in percent of the current level). Calculations by 2020 for different regions on the basis of scenario HadCM3 A1FI (Hedley Center, UK Meteorological Service, Materials, 2005). Regions: 1- North, 2– North – West, 3- Kaliningrad, 4- Center, 5- Center-Chernozem, 6- Upper Volga, 7- Middle Volga, 8- Lower Volga, 9- North Caucasus, 10- Ural, 11- West Siberia, 12 – East Siberia, 13- Far East. Cereals Increase Decrease

Changes in productivity caused by climate conditions in Russia by 2020 (deviations in percent of the current level). Calculations by 2020 for different regions on the basis of scenario HadCM3 A1FI (Hedley Center, UK Meteorological Service, Materials, 2005). Regions: 1- North, 2– North – West, 3- Kaliningrad, 4- Center, 5- Center-Chernozem, 6- Upper Volga, 7- Middle Volga, 8- Lower Volga, 9- North Caucasus, 10- Ural, 11- West Siberia, 12 – East Siberia, 13- Far East. Forage Increase Decrease

Central Asia: joint priorities for adaptation measures in near future Improvement of water management system Measures to improve outdate irrigation systems and reduce water losses (details country by country)

Central Asia: joint priorities for adaptation measures in near future Measures to survive Aral Sea and solve ecological and socio-economic problems in Amy-Daria River delta, including coordination of water management (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan). Protection of plain-flooded forests/bulrush (tugays) – key role in biodiversity adaptation. Recognize problem, ensure river run-off regime and water spillage, give opportunity of self-restoration (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan - Amy-Daria River; Kazakhstan – Syr- Daria River).

Aral Sea shrinking Map as of 1957 (map) and satellite images of the different years (sp) Source: (Glants and Zonin, WMO 2005)

Aral Sea shrinking Current state Source: (Glants and Zonin, WMO 2005) Pessimistic future

Kazakhstan: additional national priorities for adaptation measures Comprehensive measures in agriculture, including prevention of erosion, pests outbreaks, implementation of climate impact resistant kinds of crops, and legislation Improvement of water management system on rice fields and in the country as a whole with special attention to water resource management in Ili River basin to avoid danger increase in salinity of Balhash Lake

Kyrgyzstan: additional national priorities for adaptation measures Measures to stabilize level of Issyk-Kul Lake: construction of modern irrigation systems in basin of the lake, technical researches and economic feasibility studies on diversion of runoff, attraction of investments in recreation development enforcing nature protection, legal measures Medical, institutional and public awareness measures to prevent outbreaks and expansion of infections and diseases; and to organize health care in heat waves.

Tajikistan : additional national priorities for adaptation measures Measures on infrastructure maintenance in higher intensity and frequency of floods, mudflows, landslides and avalanches: monitoring, inspections, building and road standards, timely reconstruction etc. Special attention should be paid for high mountain roads and settlements. International aid is required for effective adaptation. Medical, institutional and public awareness measures to prevent outbreaks and expansion of infections and diseases; and to organize health care in heat waves.

Turkmenistan: additional national priorities for adaptation measures Measures to improve outdate irrigation systems and reduce water losses. Reconstruction of large-scale Karakum irrigation channel and its internal reservoirs. Afforestation measures to prevent soil erosion and improve desert pastures and other lands.

Measures to improve outdate irrigation systems and reduce water losses. Construction of water storage reservoirs in mountain rivers Agriculture measures: crops structure improvement, use of advanced agro-technologies, improvement of pastures in arid areas, avoiding overgrazing Uzbekistan : additional national priorities for adaptation measures

Вывод Четвертого Оценочного Доклада МГЭИК, 2007: Хотя многие негативные воздействия могут быть ослаблены с помощью адаптации, в конечном счете с экономической и экологической точек зрения надо ограничить само изменение климата – снизить выбросы парниковых газов Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and VulnerabilitySPM

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