BRIEFING: BAU ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION

0. Approach Need to review input data to see if they are correct/accurate/acceptable or not – It is agreed that energy data are not good for any in-depth study, however it is necessary to address clearly the challenge/obstacles and how to overcome it (appropriate assumptions/justifications) Top-down or bottom-up approach: bottom-up approach is appropriate as it looks at demand side with detailed subsector characteristics

0. Approach BAU or reference scenario? – BAU takes into account ALL plans by GoV and is more CDM-associated – Reference scenario is less complex and takes into account best business decisions – The purpose of this study may not be of giving a correct figure for 2030 but providing a base case with relevant assumptions and parameters.

1. Household appliances? Household data are insufficient and inconsistent – Even the VHLSS is conducted every two years but questionnaires are not designed consistently. E.g. JR observed GSO survey in 2010 did not have some items appearing in GSO survey – A good reference could be the WB survey conducted during 1992 with a sample size of 16,000 households. Mr. Tuan of IEVN can share the paper discussing results of that survey.

2. Enhanced industrial data? The development of steel energy database was given as an example on the lack of methodology in data collection. It is expected that there will be an initiative to develop a methodology guidebook on data collection and processing, which is compliant with international practice but also easy to implement in the context of Vietnam and providing reasonably correct results. A good suggestion is to use the information on energy costs and energy spendings from MOF, to have a roughly estimate of energy consumption in each subsector.

4. Implication on new coal PP? Under a BAU scenarios, future investment shall rely on better efficiency technology, not the same efficiency in the existing plants. In regard to interest rate, so far calculation is based on a discount rate of 10%. However, given the fact that Vietnam is now a medium income country, the long term loan interest from multilateral institutions is no more that low. How can BAU reflect that change?

5. Energy demand scenario With different assumptions and parameters (depending on the purpose of a study), an energy demand scenario could be different from PDP VII. It is expected that a small group discussion can be held to compare major assumptions made (and related inputs), between PDP VII and the study. Yet Vietnam needs more electricity power to maintain its development but the demand in the future should not be that high. Justification should be given in each scenario used (none found with PDPVII).

6. GHG emissions No comprehensive correlation between total GHG and GHG per capita, given the population in 2010 is around 87 million. A remark on the rebound effect on energy consumption, where people tend to consume more after investing in energy efficiency and getting income from savings. Also, with higher income that energy demand is also higher. It seems that 85% emissions in energy sector from industry likely happened. Further analysis needed to justify/compromise.