1 Strategic Appraisal of Azerbaijan By Strategists of TEAM 2 The strategic appraisal examines the domestic and international environments to ascertain the forces and trends that effect national interests and determine the resultant threats and opportunities.

2 General Information Formal Name: Republic of Azerbaijan Area: sq. km Land boundaries: km Boundaries: Armenia (with Azerbaijan-proper) 566 km, Armenia (with Azerbaijan-Naxchivan exclave) 221 km, Georgia 322 km, Iran (with Azerbaijan-proper) 432 km, Iran (with Azerbaijan-Naxchivan exclave) 179 km, Russia 284 km, Turkey 11 km, Caspian Sea: 800 km Population: 7,798,497 (July 2002 est.)

3 General Information Ethnics: Azeri 90%, Dagestani 3.2%, Russian 2.5%, Armenian 2%, other 2.3% (1998 est.) Religion: Muslim 93.4%, Russian Orthodox 2.5%, Armenian Orthodox 2.3%, other 1.8% (1995 est.) Administrative divisions: 59 districts, 11 cities, 1 autonomous republic GDP: purchasing power parity - $27 billion (2002 est.) Exports: $2 billion f.o.b. (2002 est.) Export Partners: Italy 57.2%, Israel 7.1%, Georgia 4.5%, Russia 3.4%, Turkey 2.9% (2001) Imports: $1.8 billion f.o.b. (2002) Imports - partners: US 16.1%, Russia 10.7%, Turkey 10.4%, Kazakhstan 7.0%, Germany 5.1% (2001)

4 National Values National values represent the legal, philosophical, and moral basis for continuation of a nations system. These values provide the sense of national purpose for the nation. The most common of the national values in Azerbaijan is survival. The basic national values are reflected on the Constitutional Act about The State Independence of The Republic of Azerbaijan. The main items are the followings: To maintain independence; Sovereignty; Territorial Integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

5 National Interests National interests are a nations perceived needs and aspirations in relations to its international environment. There are two main categories of national interests of Azerbaijan: vital and important.

6 Vital Interest Independence To restore territorial integrity

7 Important interests Determine the legal status of the Caspian Sea. Oil mining and transportation. Creation of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. Free access to world market and integration to the west. Maintain economic partnership with regional countries, and etc.

8 Military power of Azerbaijan There are 2,131,331 Military manpower availability in Azerbaijan. There are soldiers in Azerbaijanian Army forces. There was $121 million military expendures in Azerbaijan for Armed Forces: Armed Forces: In 2001 total of about troops (about half of which conscripts), of which allocated to ground forces, 2200 to navy, and 6100 each to air force and air defense forces.

9 National Strategy Strategy- is the art and science of developing and using political, economic, informational and military forces as necessary during peace and war, to effort the maximum support to policies, in order to increase the probabilities and favorable consequences of victory and to lessen the changes of defeat. The aim of strategy is to fulfill the objectives laid down by policy, making the best use of the resources available.

10 Foreign Relations For today there are some priorities of foreign relation relations of the Republic of Azerbaijan: promotion of the establishment of pluralistic democracy based on market economy and the rule of law; conduct of an independent foreign policy aimed at the soonest restoration of sovereignty and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan over its territory; elemination of threats and risks to the security, political independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan; peaceful settlement of the conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan through negotiations within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group on the basis of the principles of the OSCE Lisbon Summit;

11 liquidation of the consequences of military aggression of Armenia against Azerbaijan; development of good-neighbourly and mutually advantageous relations with neighbouring countries; promotion of security and stability in the region; prevention of illegal arms and other transfers in the region; adherence to existing global non-proliferation regimes and establishment of a nuclear-free zone in the Southern Caucasus; demilitarization of the Caspian Sea basin; integration into European and Transatlantic security and cooperation structures, including NATO, EU, WEU, CE; facilitation of the development of development of various sectors of the country's economy with due consideration of Azerbaijan's crucial geostrategic location at the crossroads between the East and West; development of the Eurasian Transport Corridor of which Azerbaijan is a part. Foreign Relations

12 Foreign Relations International relations of Azerbaijan can be divided into several parts: Azerbaijan-Post Soviet states diplomacy Azerbaijan-Russian Relations Azerbaijan-USA relations Azerbaijan-Turkey relations Azerbaijan-Georgia Relations Azerbaijan-International organizations relations

13 Relations with Russia Commonly the relationship with Russia can be divided into following periods – New independent Azerbaijan and Russian Azerbaijan as member of CIS – Azerbaijan after the Contract of Century Official visit of president of Azerbaijan to Russia

14 Relations with Turkey Commonly we can divide relationship of Azerbaijan with Turkey in Three parts after the independence of Azerbaijan. These are: Foundation of Relation with Turkey Changes in the relations New period in the relations

15 Relations with Georgia And that is why Georgia has some common interests with Azerbaijan. Russian Threat Integration to the west Memberships of NATO Economic interests in the project of BTC Pipeline. Peaceful solution of conflicts in its territory Regional partnership

16 Azerbaijan Interests OPPORTUNITIES To achieve favorable status of Caspian sea To make democracy in Azerbaijan more strong To restore territorial integrity Increase USA role in the region

17 Vital Interest Vital To defend its independence and sovereignty To restore territorial integrity To defend its alternative on Caspian sea status To make good relationship with regional powers

18 Important Important To make economy more stronger To continue support BTC pipeline To make good relationship with states To make good relationship with international organization Always to be closer to the west especially to USA To be member of NATO

19 Recommendations Short-term action Azerbaijan must achieve favorable status of Caspian sea immediately, to be more active in the negotiations especially with Iran. Azerbaijan must not let any incident to prolong the process of BTC project building To solve Nagorno Karabakh conflict, send back refuges. For this to give mission to the representatives of Azerbaijan in UN to make UN to realize its resolution about Nagorno Karabakh Conflict. To develop non-oil sectors. Azerbaijan must make special secret organization for solving corruption in all sectors especially in Military.

20 Recommendations Long-term action To make good relations with Russia and Iran. To be member of some other International organization like EU, NATO and etc.

21 Strategic Appraisal of Azerbaijan By Strategists of TEAM 2 !!! Thanks for Attention !!!