Elaboration and Verification for Virtual Debris-Flows Valeriy Klenov Geomorphology & Modeling of Nature Systems Moscow, Russia

Introduction The Virtual River Basin was expanded by conditions of Debris Flows Origin and rapid Move through a River Basin. The goals are: 1. Visualization and Interface of Processes in Mountains. 2. Case Study in Caucasian basin.

Virtual River Basin 1.VRB is the enliven model of Opened Non Equilibrium System with continuous external forcing and nonlinear internal interactions. 2.VRB features: Multiple scanning for 2D Multi-Layer Matrix with calculation of interactions between neighbor cells.

Virtual Debris Flows (VDF) 1. Expanded VRB receives property for multiply increases streams velocity until self-organizing of Debris Flows. 2. The VRD algorithm continuously and independently detects conditions for Debris Flows Processes (VDF).

Visualization and Interface 1. Visualization provides continuous mapping during a modeling. 2. Interface provides the following: Cursor location, Input/Output operations, Choice of Layers, Scenarios, etc.

The Case Computer study in Caucasian basin Glaciers Snow contours Water contours Snow fans Gauge Pr –Precipitation Te –Air Temperature Wt - Water Discharge Sd –Sediment Discharge Layer nameDays Grid resolution ^ Parameters

First year of 3 years simulation 1965 The Basin in the May. Small color Rectangles along the stream – 2-5 times velocity increasing. The Blue rectangle – assigned Gauge site. Basin state in the end of No cases of DF both computed and observed.

Simulation continue… < Warning for strong DF Velocity rise (red squares) Current Basin state ( ) Annual Basin History and State for the end of 1966 The Menu supports Detailed study for the Basin Multi – layer state ^ v v The computed DF coincides to observed O

Simulation continue… August 5, the beginning of strong DF. Warning For more then 10 times Velocity rise (sites of red Rectangles ). DF pulses The peak of DF. Pulses of stream velocity. DF top. 15 times stream Velocity (orange). Pulses of velocity. DF decrease. No Warning. Erosion –Sedimentation In contours. Annual (1967) history and State. The computed DF coincides to observed o

Artificial Debris Flow Simulation Colored Rectangles for DF tracing 11 equal storms resulted in 8 non equal DF One of DF does not correlate with storm v

Debris Flow under High temporal resolution Debris Flow for the day of continuous Rains. (at 2.4 hours) Debris Flow at 8 hours. Warning Debris Flow at 11 o'clock. Debris Flow Is over. The resulted DF peak V

Computed and observed Debris Flows coincide. Computed and Observed DF agreed

Outlook: 1. The objective is validation for VRB with observed records for Precipitation, Air Temperature, Discharges, and with Data on Elevation, etc. - for actual basins. 2. To apply the table–top acting model to maintain for DF hazard monitoring and urgent Warning in real Time.

Conclusion It is not the model for Debris Flows only. It is the model of a River Basin with Know-How for DF self–perceiving and Warning. Acknowledgments. Acknowledgments. Thanks to Dr. Veniamin F. Perov for observed Data rendering and for friendly suggestion.