The New EU Energy Strategy for Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe The New EU Energy Strategy for Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe Plamen Dimitrov Bulgarian Geopolitical Society

Natural gas proved reserves, gas production and consumption(2009) Proved reserves(tcm) Production (bcm) Consumption (bcm) Russia44,38527,5389,7 Turkmen.8,1 36,4 (66,1) 19,8 Kazakhstan1,8232,219,6 Azerbaijan1,3114,87,7 Iran29,61131,2131,7

Natural gas proved reserves, gas production and consumption(2009) Proved reserves(tcm) Production (bcm) Consumption (bcm) Ukraine0,9819,3 47(67 in 2006) Romania0,6310,9 13,6 (18,1 in 2006) Bulgaria Close to zero less than 1 2,5 Turkey Close to zero 1 32 (36 in 2008)

Probability to be operational by the spring of 2016 By the spring of 2021 Nabuccozero10% ITGI45%80% TAP25%75% South Stream 40%80% AGRIzero10% White Stream zerozero Blue Stream-2 zero5%

Conclusions The Black Sea region is the zone where the export routes of the Russian and the Caspian natural gas cross. The Black Sea region is the zone where the export routes of the Russian and the Caspian natural gas cross. In regard of the natural gas all Black Sea states have two main objectives: 1. to secure for themselves stable and advantageous gas deliveries; 2. to attract transit gas streams through their territories In regard of the natural gas all Black Sea states have two main objectives: 1. to secure for themselves stable and advantageous gas deliveries; 2. to attract transit gas streams through their territories

Conclusions The struggle among the different projects for transfer of gas in the Black Sea region is an equation with many unknown quantities. Purely economic arguments cannot answer the question which of the projects will be accomplished and which one will not. The struggle among the different projects for transfer of gas in the Black Sea region is an equation with many unknown quantities. Purely economic arguments cannot answer the question which of the projects will be accomplished and which one will not. In the circumstances of stagnation at the EU gas market that was going on after 2008 the project for new gas pipelines from Russia and the Caspian region are gaining an increasingly stronger geopolitical ingredient In the circumstances of stagnation at the EU gas market that was going on after 2008 the project for new gas pipelines from Russia and the Caspian region are gaining an increasingly stronger geopolitical ingredient

Conclusions The increasing LNG and CNG deliveries further the globalization of the gas market and begin to influence the new regional gas pipeline projects. The prices at the gas spot-market in Europe will be an important indicator of the feasibility of the major gas pipeline projects. The increasing LNG and CNG deliveries further the globalization of the gas market and begin to influence the new regional gas pipeline projects. The prices at the gas spot-market in Europe will be an important indicator of the feasibility of the major gas pipeline projects. In the nearest and foreseeable future Russia will preserve its position of domination in regard of the gas deliveries to the Central and South-East Europe and will prevent the appearance of its competitor, Caspian gas, at these markets In the nearest and foreseeable future Russia will preserve its position of domination in regard of the gas deliveries to the Central and South-East Europe and will prevent the appearance of its competitor, Caspian gas, at these markets