Belarus Participation in the Eastern Partnership and the Customs Union: Political Background

The Eastern Partnership of the EU

The Customs Union The Russian Federation Kazakhstan Belarus

Improvement of relations with the West: After 2006 elections - growing pressure from Russia August War in Georgia Turn in Belarusian Foreign Policy - clearly from 2008 No recognition of Abkhazia-South Ossetia Limitation of political repression in the country Foreign Visits: Italy, Vatican, Lithuania Relations with Georgia, Ukraine Eastern Partnership Credits to Belarus from the West: $28,5 billion – 52,2% GDP

Conflict with Russia: Milk war, Meat war, Sugar war January 2007 – Oil Transit blocked off. April 2010 – Revolution in Kirgizia – Bakiev Problem June 2010 – Gas Conflict. Summer-Winter 2010 – Media War September 2010 – Attack on the Russian Embassy in Minsk Pressure to recognize Abkhazia/South Ossetia

Elections: December 19, 2010 Position of the EU: important progress, not result Sikorski-Westerwelle visit, November – 3 billion euro promise Belarusian authorities: unprecedentedly liberal Campaign, 10 candidates, no repressions Position of Russia: intensive media campaign, open blackmail possible non-recognition of elections results !!! December, 10 – meeting with Medvedev – decision to enter the Customs Union

Crackdown of Protests Reaction of the EU: shock, Germany and Poland accused of coup d'état, declarations of serious sanctions, only visa sanctions applied Reaction of Russia: recognition of elections continuation of media pressure continuation of economic pressure: gas and oil price, duties on cars, threats to limit Belarusian export to Russia (milk) control over Foreign Policy of Belarus (no relations with the West, no more alternative energy projects, Georgia question) ! No credits for Belarus

Situation in January-May 2011 Extremely high level of political repressions Galloping Inflation (15%) Trade Balance (-3.7$ billion during 4 months) ! Currency crisis – April 2011 April 11 – Minsk Subway Bombing – 15 died, 126 injured May, 2011 – devaluation (56%-100%) Unemployment – 0.5 to 1 million people Level of life – 250$ or 170 euro (instead of 500$)

Whats Next? Someone helps the Regime – 8-10 billion $/year Government starts shocking-therapy reforms and large-scale privatization – deep social crisis, dissatisfaction of people, the only major investor - Russia No Reforms, self-removal from decision-making – economic collapse by Autumn, 2011, unpredictable political consequences, mafia-style privatization

Interests of the European Union in Belarus: Protection of sovereignty and independence of Belarus Political and economic stability Attraction of Belarus to political and economic cooperation with the EU (Eastern Partnership) Promotion of democratic procedures, Human Rights and development of civil society in Belarus

Russian Interests in Belarus: Military sphere and Regional Security Military sphere and Regional Security Preservation of Russian political and economic influence in the country Preservation of Russian political and economic influence in the country Secure transit of oil and gas Secure transit of oil and gas Privatization of the most profitable industries in Belarus Privatization of the most profitable industries in Belarus Predictable and negotiable government in Belarus, capable to protect the Russian interests in the Region Predictable and negotiable government in Belarus, capable to protect the Russian interests in the Region Limited influence of the EU in Belarus Limited influence of the EU in Belarus