Failed States and Conflicts in the Middle East Presentation at Jean Monnet International Conference, May 2011 Alla Zakharchenko, Odesa National University, Ukraine

Failed States in the World Alert Warning Moderate Sustainable

Foreign Policy 2010 Failed States Index On the basis of 12 metrics including security threats, economic implosion, human rights violations and refugee flows 6 Afghanistan 7 Iraq 10 Pakistan 15 Yemen 32 Iran 34 Lebanon 48 Syria 49 Egypt 54 Israel/Palestinian territories 3 of World's Top 10 Failed States are in the Middle East

Failed States in the Middle East Critical In danger Borderline

Geopolitics of Conflicts in the Middle East Three levels of analysis: Intern: problems or challenges that can trigger conflicts within some states and with risk of escalation to the next levels. Regional: problems between Middle Eastern states and sources of instability for the region (especially for neighbors like the EU) Global: problems that affect the whole world, and especially its global players (USA, EU, etc.)

Diversity as the Main Source of Instability in the Middle East Political Economic Ethnic and cultural Religious

Shiite minorities important in some Arab countries: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon

Major Sources for State Failure and Instability in the Middle East Traditional/ military sources of instability - competition for regional dominance; - conflicts and wars; - weapons proliferation (including WMD), etc. Structural/non- military sources of instability - crisis in governance; - ethnic and religious problems; - population growth; - economic underdevelopment; - recourse (water) scarcity.

Competition for Regional Dominance transformation of Middle Eastern regional structure; The decline of traditional regional players (Egypt, Syria, Iraq ) and the rise of the new (Iran) as a danger to regional balance of powers.

Nuclear Proliferation Iran seems to be marching inexorably toward development of a nuclear fuel cycle that could produce weapons-grade fissile material. The major regional states of Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt might all feel compelled to take some sort of corresponding step to ensure their own security. For its part, Israel might feel compelled to take military action, raising the possibility of escalation and a a wider regional conflict involving Israel, Syria, Iran and United States.

The Arab-Israeli Dispute The Arab-Israeli conflict continues to be cited by many regional leaders as a leading source of instability and radicalization among the regions restive public. The victory of Hamas in Palestinian territories in The war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.

Crisis in Governance authoritarian and anachronistic forms of governments; problems of civil society; the failure of secular Arab nationalist movements; Arab socialism and Pan- Arabism; nationalism as a failed policy, islamism as an alternative.

Foreign Policy list of the 23 worlds worst dictators according to the egregiousness of their actions in the realms of perfidy, cultural betrayal, and economic devastation: 8 Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran 11 Muammar al-Qaddafi of Libya 12 Bashar al-Assad of Syria 15 Hosni Mubarak of Egypt

Crisis in Governance The era of these governmental forms is drawing to close, and it remains unclear what forms of governance will emerge to take their places. The process of transition to new governmental structures may be violent and result in region- wide instability, and types of governments that emerge may be revolutionary in nature.

The Problem of Islamic Fundamentalism and Extremism Islamists remain a powerful domestic political constituency in most Middle Eastern societies. The rise of radical Islam (Al- Qaeda, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah, etc) as a result of gradual collapse of the secular order in such countries as Syria, Egypt, Libya and Iraq.

Demography inexorable growth of population; - populations doubles each 23 years (233 years in Europe); - it will reach 1,7 billions in youth explosion 50% population is the key age group structural unemployment in the range of 20-30% in some Middle Eastern countries.

Economic problems underdevelopment in Egypt 23% of the population subsists on less than US $2 per day, another 37 % lives on less than US $2.60 inequality in economic development; US $ GDP per capita in Qatar, US $ 465 in Yemen, US $ 211 in Iraq. poverty; urbanization.

Water Recourses Fresh water shortages will only grow more acute due to the lack of renewable freshwater sources as populations increase and present new challenges to governance. The lack of fresh water is the source for regional conflicts. Food security.

The External Involvement The external involvement in the region (the engagement of 3rd powers, especially the USA) as a source of inter- state conflicts and states failure. The influence of 9/11 on American foreign policy and its consequences for the Middle Eastern countries (on the example of Iraq).

Iraq It started as a war against WMD proliferation and terrorism. The USA failed to stabilize the country after the war, because did not understand the politics of ethnicity, religion and dictatorships. Failed state in Iraq as man- maid phenomena.

Iraq Events in Iraq will affect a variety of states, which could in turn prompt additional conflict: Turkey and Iran fear a semi-independent Kurdish entity in Iraq; Saudi Arabia fears a Shiite-dominated Iraq that could destabilize its own Shiite minority and those communities in Bahrain and Kuwait; All regional states fear the prospect of an Iraq with strong ties to the clerical establishment in Iran; All regional states fear the prospect of an Iraq than becomes a haven for terrorists and religious extremists.

Conclusion The dangerous mix of traditional and structural sources of instability in the Middle East; Old conflicts are here to stay, and new challenges to security appear; The growing number of failed and week states; The provocative role of external involvement.